DEAR NEW YORK GIANTS: TREAD LIGHTLY WITH DANIEL JONES’ CONTRACT
Charles Wenzelberg/New York Post
Do not re-sign Daniel Jones.
I repeat. Do not re-sign Daniel Jones.
The New York Giants entered the year under a new regime, having to make do with the roster of the previous.
First-time general manager Joe Schoen and head coach Brian Daboll had the difficult responsibility of beginning the 2022 season with the task of reevaluating their inherited roster from top to bottom.
The pair made sure to let go of any relics of the past that they deemed unfit for their planned future but were more than willing to spend an additional year to evaluate some of their younger pieces; namely quarterback Daniel Jones and running back Saquon Barkley.
After tearing down the roster to a skeleton crew, the team’s expectations were low, with many writing off a team that had come 4-13 in the previous season and finished last in the division. Now the Giants are playoff-bound.
With the close of the regular season nearing its head closer and closer, Schoen will have to decide whether to renew his quarterback’s expiring contract.
Admittedly, there aren’t many options at quarterback other than Jones. With the Giants currently sitting 7-4-1 this late in the season, it’d be difficult to imagine them acquiring a top-tier signal-caller out of this draft class, especially amongst the plethora of quarterback-needy teams in the league.
More likely than not, Schoen and his staff will have to decide on finding a way to either keep Jones or find a replacement for the position.
Let’s take a look at some of the options.
Option 1: Franchise tag Daniel Jones
Tagging either Jones, Barkley, or both is one of the most likely scenarios the Giants will take at the end of this year. However, by this point of the NFL season, it has become clear that paying Barkley is a no-brainer.
Through 12 games, Barkley has rushed for 1,055 yards and 8 touchdowns and is on pace to surpass his career 2018 season in which he was named the NFL’s Rookie of the Year. He currently sits 4th in league-wide rushing yards and 5th in all-purpose yardage.
No brainer, right? A multi-year contract short of $13 million per year would be close to perfect for both parties. The Giants would be able to commit themselves long-term to their franchise player, paying him as such, but still allowing themselves another year to alleviate the prior regime’s financial burdens.
Schoen and the Giants will have to be prepared if Barkley asks for more than $15 million a year. However, this seems unlikely, as Barkley has repeatedly stated that he’d like to retire as a Giant and would be willing to work in conjunction with the front office to build the team.
This leaves Jones on the tag.
The tag on Jones would be far from a light contract, as the Giants would need to allocate an estimated $31.5 million of the team’s 2023 cap space to the signal caller.
If Schoen’s team completes both signings, the Giants will be left to fill out the final 13 players on their roster with the remaining $10 million left on the cap.
The team currently holds nine picks in the 2023 NFL draft, which, due to their record, is estimated to cost them between $9 to $11 million. However, cutting ties with players such as wide receiver Kenny Golladay should allow the Giants to gain enough return on their cap situation to make room for their new draft class and re-sign a few key players on small contracts such as Julian Love, Darius Slayton, and Jon Feliciano.
All in all, tagging Jones would ultimately bring back a team similar to the Giants’ 2022 squad, along with a new draft class while they wait for their cap space to clear out in 2024.
Option 2: Let Jones Walk
Before the start of the 2022 season, this circumstance seemed to be the most likely scenario that the Giants would pursue heading into next year. A tumultuous start to Jones’ NFL career and the declination of his 5th-year option by the new regime was enough for NFL circles to begin speculating that this would be the Duke alum’s last year in a Giants’ uniform.
However, after a 7-4-1 record paired with the lowest turnover rate of his career, the lines on Jones’ future have become a little more blurred. The Giants’ front office still has the remainder of the 2022 season to decide, which will likely depend on how far the 4th-year signal caller can take this thinly-built roster. If they choose to move on, the Giants have several options at quarterback.
Draft a Quarterback
A vocal majority of Giants fans have been clamoring for the front office to consider drafting a new quarterback and finally put the Daniel Jones experiment to rest. There is no doubt that the upcoming 2023 quarterback class is stacked with talent; expectations are that C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young, and Will Levis will start flying off boards early in the first round.
The reality is that due to the Giants’ current record, it’s unlikely they’ll be in a position to acquire any of these quarterbacks without a trade up in the draft. The price of doing so would be steep, as there truly are only three standout players from the position group who are all being evaluated by at least six potential suitors in the top ten picks.
It is unlikely that the Giants draft a quarterback unless either one falls or they trade up for one in exchange for a hefty sum of draft capital.
Sign Lamar Jackson
Throughout the 2022 NFL season, there has been a lingering concern regarding Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson’s contract status. Jackson is looking for a contract that would guarantee him $230 million, likely due to the rivaling Cleveland Browns’ signing of quarterback Deshaun Watson last offseason. Unfortunately for general managers' offices, as long as Watson plays well, this record-breaking signing has seemed to set a new precedent within the league.
The Ravens have tried their best to curtail Jackson’s wishes, offering a 6-yr, $290 million deal, but only including $133 million guaranteed due to their future salary cap situation. Jackson declined the offer.
Unlike the Ravens, if constructed properly, the Giants could offer Jackson the deal he’s looking for. Here is an example of a possible contract the Giants would be able to offer the MVP signal caller.
This may be the most unlikely option the Giants take, as Schoen has proven to be one of the more conservative managers around the league, but is still a viable option for the team to consider. Due to being amongst the teams with the largest salary caps in the next few years, the Giants will have little to no competition in next year’s free agency as to the amount of money they could offer Jackson.
Instead of searching for a new long-term answer at quarterback via the draft, signing Jackson to a long term deal that is easy on the front end would solve some of the team’s more immediate financial woes. The Giants would be able to acquire their quarterback of the future whilst spending a similar sum of money to a situation where they decide on franchise-tagging Jones.
Under this hypothetical contract, the Giants could still re-sign Barkley to a multi-year deal south of $13 million a year.
This scenario would revolutionize the Giants’ rushing attack, which would pair a generational quarterback and running back, leaving Schoen with the freedom to spend premium draft capital on filling out the remainder of his roster with wide receivers, cornerbacks, and offensive linemen.
Granted, such a pursuit of Jackson is a large gamble, because if the quarterback chooses to resign with Baltimore or signs with another team, the Giants could potentially lose out on not only Jackson, but also Jones.
Sign or Stick with a Journeyman
Despite being the best option for the Giants to conserve salary cap and acquire draft capital, such a decision could be the most detrimental to overall team progression.
Letting go of Jones, not signing a premium quarterback, and then falling out of the race to draft the esteemed position would be a step backwards for a team whose fans and players are dead set on winning a Super Bowl this year.
This first year of the new Schoen-Daboll regime has been one of the most important for the future that the pair plans to build for the franchise. Since Day 1, the duo has emphasized the importance of building a rebranded culture, which could not have been more emphasized by the team’s unexpected playoff push.
The Giants currently have journeyman Tyrod Taylor under contract, who has proven to be a serviceable starting quarterback. There were already some cries amongst fans and media before the 2022 season for Taylor to start over Jones.
The team’s journeyman options also extend into free agency, with Geno Smith being a good example. The Seattle Seahawks are projected to have a top five overall pick in the upcoming draft, one that they will likely use to acquire a new quarterback. With Smith heading into free agency, Schoen can possibly try his hand at offering the quarterback a short 2-year deal under $20 million a year. If unable to acquire Smith or if Seattle retains him, names such as Jimmy Garoppolo, Gardner Minshew, and P.J. Walker should be offered some consideration.
Option 3: Settle for a Small Multi-Year Deal
This scenario entails that the Giants are unwilling to pay a premium for Jackson nor believe they are in the proper position to draft a quarterback. If the Giants truly believe Jones is the quarterback of their future, this is their best option. The Giants would ideally be able to bring back Jones for a small contract, ideally in the range of a two to three year deal under $25 million a year.
A circumstance extremely practical for the team, as they would be given the freedom to spend up to $29 million in cap space on Barkley in the case he asks for more than expected.
This is one of the better options that Schoen and his staff could pursue and can also be very expected, but will again depend on the balance of the remainder of the Giants’ season. If they surpass 10 wins and make a considerable playoff push, chances are Jones’ agents will ask for a contract closer to the $30 million per year mark. But Schoen, if you are asked for anything north of it, walk away.
Final Analysis: A Giant Decision
The Giants’ have more than a few options to pursue in the upcoming offseason in regards to the future of their quarterback position. Despite many fans clamoring for a fresh-faced quarterback to lay claim to the duties of signal-caller, the Giants’ record will likely take themselves out of such a discussion altogether.
Given the situation that they’ve now placed themselves under, Schoen and his front office staff will have to find a way to garner a sense of security in the position, whether it be through signing a quarterback through free agency, or bringing back Jones.
The Giants’ should undoubtedly take a good shot at attempting to lure Lamar Jackson away from the Baltimore Ravens, as being in the financial situation to be able to acquire a MVP-caliber quarterback rarely occurs. If successful, the Schoen-Daboll era would be able to construct a Super Bowl contending roster in under two years since taking over the franchise.
If worst comes to worst, a serious effort to retain Jones on a minimal contract would be ideal, as keeping a familiar-faced mid-level quarterback is almost always better than signing a journeyman to your roster. However, if the Giants push far enough in the playoffs, and contract negotiations between Jones and the team go sour, Schoen should not hesitate to let the quarterback of the old regime go.
